000 AXNT20 KNHC 210011 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 ...CORRECTED NAME AT THE END... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W EXTENDING TO 2S40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 14W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR 1S33W AND FROM EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 40W-50W. CONVECTION HAS ALSO FLARED UP OVER N BRAZIL AND THE GUYANAS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS DIGS INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF PRODUCING STRONG WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WHILE CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THANKS TO A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER NE MEXICO. NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT USHERING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE LAKE OCKEECHOBEE AREA. ALSO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...STRONG N SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING AT 21/0600 UTC. CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 2100 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC STRETCHES ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. NLY WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND PATCHES OF RAIN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTS THIS FRONT. FURTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO N HONDURAS. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A SECOND SFC TROUGH IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI GENERATING A PATCH OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THE SFC RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...A BROAD MID/UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING DRY AIR AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED. LOOKING AHEAD...THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED AS A SFC TROUGH ON THE 2100 UTC INTERMEDIATE MAP. THE MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 110-130 KT IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE REACHING CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE DEEP TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST 31N73W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 40 KT WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS COLD FRONT. FURTHER EAST...A DECAYING FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N68W THEN CONTINUES SW TO CENTRAL CUBA. ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS IS TO THE EAST...AND A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED THERE. THIS TROUGH GOES FROM 30N64W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N28W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL ATLC RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND EXTENDS MAINLY NEWD OVER NW AFRICA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 16N48W. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT...WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ GR