000
AXNT20 KNHC 170509
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0430 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W 2N35W AND INTO NE 
BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE 
SFC RIDGE IS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE 
REGION. NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 
15-20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY 
EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER THE NW GULF 
ON SUN. ONSHORE WINDS ARE PERMITTING CLOUDS TO BUILD UP ALONG 
THE SIERRA MADRES. SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING THIS CLOUD COVER 
ACROSS THE SW GULF...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
FORMING IN THE DRY AIR MASS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN 
THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE FRONT ENTERS THE 
CARIBBEAN OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. NE WINDS 20-25 KT COVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT. A SFC TROUGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN ENTERING THE BASIN NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 
EXTENDING TO ISLA BLANQUILLA NEAR 12N65W. BROAD CIRCULATION 
SURROUNDING THIS TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SAN 
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 15N AND E OF 68W. THIS TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 75W 
ON MON. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE W ATLC 
BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
31N62W AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP-LAYER 
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. FARTHER SOUTH...A SFC TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 23N62W SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO 
THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH 
ARE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 59W-66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS 
DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB SFC HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 32N31W. FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE 
FLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND THE RIDGE. A SWATH OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IS ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AFFECTING THE TROPICS. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
WADDINGTON