000
AXNT20 KNHC 161052
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 23W TO 2S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 16W-21W. WIDESPREAD 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7S-3N BETWEEN 22W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN 
CONUS...EXTENDING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS 
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NE WINDS 
20-25 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF SOUTH OF 26N. STRONG SWLY WINDS 
ALOFT ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC 
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC. EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO 
WEAKEN SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
THE NW GULF ON SUN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL 
CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. N TO NE 
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 25-30 KT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
NE WINDS NEAR 15 KT ARE OBSERVED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC 
TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE CARIBBEAN LACKS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE 
EASTERN CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 30N66W 25N73W 
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. MULTI-LAYERED 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE W ATLC BEHIND THE 
BOUNDARY. A SFC TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
15N54W...IS DEPICTED ALONG 21N5W 16N57W TO 11N57W. BROAD 
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE TROUGH FROM THE 
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. 
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD...BRINGING 
INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 
1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N40W. A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. 
ALOFT...DIVERGENCE IN THE TROPICS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR 
THE ITCZ.  

$$
WADDINGTON