000
AXNT20 KNHC 160511
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF. 
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING NE WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA. 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH SCATTER SHOWERS COVER THE 
GULF SOUTH OF 25N. STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE TRANSPORTING 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO 
THE W ATLC. EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO WEAKEN SAT AND SAT NIGHT 
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF ON SUN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS 
BORDER. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE 
CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED 
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 
30 KT...ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS 
ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N53W IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER  THE 
LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE...THE CARIBBEAN LACKS SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT...AS OF 0300 UTC...ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
30N69W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OVER 
CENTRAL CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY IN THE CARIBBEAN. 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 200 NM 
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. A SFC TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW 
NEAR 15N53W...IS DEPICTED ALONG 20N56W TO 12N58W. A BROAD 
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE TROUGH FROM THE 
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO 20N BETWEEN 47W-62W. EXPECT THE TROUGH 
TO PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE 
LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A 
LARGE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N34W. 
A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IS ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE MAINLY FROM 10N-22N EAST OF 50W.   

$$
WADDINGTON