000 AXNT20 KNHC 150104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009 ...CORRECTED WORD AND ATLC SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3.5N-6N BETWEEN 13W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6.5N BETWEEN 28W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W ENVELOPING THE SE CONUS AND THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS NOTED OVER SE MEXICO INCLUDING MUCH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE HIGH PRES OVER SW LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXITS THE E AND SE U.S. AND MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THU THROUGH EARLY SAT PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA THEN CONTINUES SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PART OF CUBA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH LOCATED NE OF AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA. LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. SW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH IS TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SINCE YESTERDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AND UNUSUAL WEATHER FEATURE IS TAKING SHAPE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXHIBITING A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING THE ENERGY FROM STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN NOAA BUOYS 41040 AND 41041. BASED ON THE ABOVE...A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE ADDED ON THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WWD UNDER THE TRADE WIND FLOW AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRI AND THEN THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FRI THROUGH SAT PRODUCING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THOSE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N68W THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SW TO S WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL WHILE NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SITUATED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N38W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ GR