000
AXNT20 KNHC 141657
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 
1N-2N BETWEEN 7W-12W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 12W-176W...AND FROM 
2N-4N BETWEEN 17W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-4N BETWEEN 31W-34W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N WHILE BROKEN 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE S OF 24N. 10-15 KT NE SURFACE FLOW 
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S OVER THE 
NORTH GULF STATES AND IN THE 60'S OVER S FLORIDA AND S TEXAS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 24N WHILE SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE S GULF. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 22N78W 
17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A TIGHT 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE W CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 80W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 80W. 
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA 
NEAR 22N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 20 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 20N BETWEEN W 
AFRICA TO 60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA W OF 40W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
ATLANTIC FROM THE EQ-22N E OF 50W.    

$$
FORMOSA