000
AXNT20 KNHC 121732
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N20W 3N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 
EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N 
BETWEEN 23W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 24N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N93W 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N 
OF THE FRONTS WITH 15-25 KT NE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 
40'S AND 50'S OVER THE N GULF STATES WHILE TEMPERATURES S OF THE 
FRONT REMAIN IN THE 70'S. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE 
WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING 
IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS 
AND BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE GULF IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE W CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS 
OVER THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 
80W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT 
FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 20 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE 
HIGH TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
BETWEEN 35W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA BETWEEN 10W-30W. CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC E OF 35W.    

$$
FORMOSA