000
AXNT20 KNHC 101711
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N30W EQ40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 
1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N 
BETWEEN 1W-6W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-12W... FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 
19W-22W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 29W-33W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS MOVING 
RAPIDLY INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 NM OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE MARKS AN IMMEDIATE DROP OF 
TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES F WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT. 
FURTHER INLAND OVER NW TEXAS TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. 
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW... 
FAIR WEATHER..AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 
85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
STATES WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 
27N. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. GALE 
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF FOR 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E HONDURAS. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N72W. 
AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 
55W-75W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W 
TO 25N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 
21N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1028 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N38W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W 
OF 75W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. A 
SMALL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N45W. A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE 
THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
32N40W TO 24N60W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.      

$$
FORMOSA