000 AXNT20 KNHC 101014 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2009 ...CORRECTED THE SEVENTH LINE OF GULF OF MEXICO SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 2N28W 1N35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 20W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 31W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION...WHERE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH SE OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N76W IS BRINGING S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W CONUS IS MOVING EASTWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION OF THE CONUS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NW GULF ON SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED N WINDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W TO 15N72W TO 19N73W. SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH SE OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N76W MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 30 KT...ARE PRESENT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N72W TO 27N60W TO 32N54W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT. TO THE W...A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N76W TO 28N66W TO 31N59W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 32N57W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THIS SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SW ATLC. THE SUBSIDENCE IS BEING ENHANCED AROUND A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH SE OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N76W. BOTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS PRESENT NEAR 29N39W. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH IS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E ATLC. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N33W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N41W TO 12N54W. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 33W-38W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM LOCATED S OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N15W IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 18W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 7N12W TO 6N23W TO 1N36W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ COHEN