000
AXNT20 KNHC 091724
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 39W 
AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION 
ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-17W AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 34W-39W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-2N W OF 
48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE 
CENTERED ON A SFC HIGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SOUTHERLY 
RETURN FLOW 10-15 KT COVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF WITH 
STRONGER WINDS 15-20 KT OBSERVED THE NW GULF. EXPECT THESE WINDS 
TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 
REGION. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE UPPER TEXAS 
COAST EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT... STRETCHES ACROSS THE 
NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 19N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 40 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. TRADE WINDS 15-20 KT 
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 25 KT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 30 
KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ALOFT...STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER VENEZUELA IS LIMITING 
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN TO ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC. AS 
OF 1500 UTC...THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N58W 
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE BOUNDARY. TO THE WEST...A SECOND...AND WEAKER COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N66W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N72W TO 
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND NEAR 26N78W. THIS FRONT IS DRIER THAN THE 
FIRST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NE OF 28N71E WITHIN 20 NM OF THE 
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A 
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1029 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 
30N38W. SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS 
THE ATLC S OF 21N.

$$
WADDINGTON