000 AXNT20 KNHC 091127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER NEAR 8N11W TO 3N20W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 7N...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...EAST OF 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED COMPLETELY. MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW APPEARS TO COVER THE GULF EAST OF 90W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SEEMS TO HAVE EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPLETELY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVANCES GRADUALLY MORE AND MORE TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO IS EVERYWHERE. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPLETELY PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM GUATEMALA TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N57W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS ONE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 26N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO 22N78W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY AND CONTINUES FROM 22N78W TO NORTHERN BELIZE. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...PASSING THROUGH 32N73W TO 29N80W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...CONTINUING ACROSS LOUISIANA AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 66W... MOVING ON TOP OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 12N58W TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS MOSTLY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CORNERS OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS ALONG 26N50W BEYOND 32N46W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N37W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 17N48W TO 12N58W TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N31W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N39W TO 26N57W TO 22N70W. $$ MT