000
AXNT20 KNHC 080550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N8W TO 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W...TO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 25N
AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.S.A. EAST OF 100W. THE TROUGH THAT IS 
BRINGING ABOUT THIS CYCLONIC FLOW NOW IS PROVIDING ENERGY TO 
WHAT WAS THE SLOWLY-MOVING SHALLOW COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COLD FRONT
FINALLY HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND NOW IT PASSES
THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 27N79W...TO WESTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W...INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND EXITS THE
AREA ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...MOVING BEYOND 32N70W. GALE FORCE 
WINDS OR NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 120 NM TO 210 NM 
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FT 
TO 16 FT. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 75W.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA BEYOND 32N60W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORMING TO THE EAST
OF 75W...AROUND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 67W/68W. UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT SURFACE WIND FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA BEYOND 32N60W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 20N47W TO 15N50W TO 8N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N75W TO 27N79W COLD FRONT. A RIDGE
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 30N15W A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
NEAR 31N37W TO 29N54W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO WESTERN SAHARA.

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MT