000
AXNT20 KNHC 071143
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N9W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 16W
AND 19W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD...ALONG
A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO 24N103W IN CENTRAL MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS OVER
LAND AND NOT NEAR THE GULF WATERS AT ALL. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT 
THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DIGGING TROUGH PASSES 
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 
22N98W...BECOMING STATIONARY AND CURVING TO 26N100W IN MEXICO.
A DISTINCT LINE OF CLOUDINESS MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
SHALLOW FRONT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SHALLOW 
COLD FRONT NORTH OF 26N. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT 
STARTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA NEAR 11N81W...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA BEYOND 32N74W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT SURFACE 
WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-32N74W RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME CUT OFF NEAR 17N50W. POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 26N BETWEEN 36W AND 
52W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 31N36W TO 29N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 30N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM TRINIDAD TO 14N50W TO 20N37W
TO 24N25W BEYOND 23N19W IN AFRICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO TO SOUTHERN MAURITANIA. 

$$
MT