000
AXNT20 KNHC 070607
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N9W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 8W AND 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS 
TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT 
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS MOMENT. THE COLD 
FRONT THAT STILL IS OVER LAND IS BEHIND THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT
THAT IS AND HAS BEEN OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE SHALLOW FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE 
MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W TO MEXICO NEAR 26N102W. A DISTINCT LINE
OF CLOUDINESS ALONG 30N87W 27N90W 24N94W 21N97W MARKS THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHALLOW FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT NORTH OF 26N. UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STARTS IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA BEYOND 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT SURFACE WIND FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE NICARAGUA-TO-
32N75W RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER HAS BECOME CUT OFF NEAR 18N51W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W. 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N36W TO 29N50W TO 28N67W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH 
FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 23N.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO TO 
SOUTHERN MAURITANIA. 

$$
MT