000
AXNT20 KNHC 021708
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N21W 4N24W 4N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EQ-2N BETWEEN 6W-10W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 19W-25W...AND FROM 
5N-8N BETWEEN 39W-46W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N70W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO E TEXAS PRODUCING 10-15 KT 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES 
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60'S AND 70'S DOMINATES THE GULF. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. A BAND OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 25N-28N. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT 
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE 
TO RETURN FLOW.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST 
OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD 
ISLANDS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS S OF 14N E OF 66W. EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS OF SHOWERS 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY E OF 73W AND S OF 13N.   

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N45W 28N50W 
25N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAHAMAS TO 24N77W. A 
PER FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N51W 20N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS AND OF THE TROUGH. A 1025 MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW 
FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 24N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD 
RIDGE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W. A 90-110 KT 
JETSTREAM IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN FLORIDA 
AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 20W-40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N E OF 30W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 
20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. 

$$
FORMOSA