000
AXNT20 KNHC 021115
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N24W 5N45W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF  
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 3W-10W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ E OF 17W TO INLAND 
OVER W AFRICA...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 
17W-31W...AND WITHIN 60 NM 2N FROM 19W-23W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N 
BETWEEN 34W-44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL WLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF ADVECTING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF N 
OF 23N. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KT IS ALSO ACROSS 
THE N GULF N OF 24N TO THE N GULF COAST AND ACROSS FLORIDA INTO 
THE W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED 
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST GIVING MOST OF THE GULF SURFACE 
SLY RETURN FLOW. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
E GULF E OF 90W AND N OF 27N FROM 90W-93W. FOG IS REPORTED 
INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND MOST OF E TEXAS. THE NEXT FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF ON SUN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE 
CARIBBEAN SW TO W UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE 
AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 78W 
AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO ACROSS THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. 

ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING 
INT O THE W/CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF 29N FROM 45W-62W DRAPING A 
COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 26N61W WHERE IT 
BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N75W. A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N53W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH PATCHES 
OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W 
ATLC FROM 20N-27N W OF 40W. DENSE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 
27N W OF THE FRONT TO 77W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 
KT IS ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 25N FROM ACROSS FLORIDA AND IN THE 
N GULF OF MEXICO TO 50W. NEAR ZONAL UPPER WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF 
THE FRONT/TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N29W. 

$$
WALLACE