000
AXNT20 KNHC 020518
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 7N23W 5N39W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF  
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN 8W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N FROM 
23W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 35W-48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E 
PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E 
GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST GIVING MOST OF THE 
GULF SE TO S RETURN FLOW. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 90W AND PATCHES OF FOG ALONG THE NW GULF 
ACROSS LOUISIANA AND NE TEXAS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE 
CARIBBEAN SW TO W UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE 
AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC 
HAS WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THUS... 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING 
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 77W. 
SOME UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS 
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH 
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER 
THE NW ATLC MOSTLY N OF 29N DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N53W ALONG 25N63W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS 
NEAR 22N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO N CUBA NEAR 22N80W. A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO 22N63W. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE 
FRONT WITH DENSE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF 27N. A JETSTREAM WITH 
WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 55W TO 
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NEAR ZONAL UPPER WLY FLOW DOMINATES 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC 
E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N28W. 

$$
WALLACE