000
AXNT20 KNHC 012333
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W TO 05N20W TO 04N30W 04N40W TO 
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH 
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 80 KNOTS 
OVER THE NE PART. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSIDENCE OVER 
ALL BUT THE FAR NE GULF AND ALSO REVEALS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT 
WILL MOVE E INTO THE WESTERN GULF OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY WESTERLY 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AND WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 100 KNOTS. 
VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST BEFORE SUNSET INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS N OF ABOUT 26N E OF 91W. A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF 
NEAR 25N91W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. 
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ARE HIGHEST N OF 
ABOUT 15N. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM 13N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. 

ATLANTIC...
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
CARIBBEAN SEAS SECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. 
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ARE IN THE 90 TO 100 KNOT RANGE N OF 
27N W OF 60W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS LOCATED N OF 30N BETWEEN 
55W AND 75W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 60W. A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
25N E OF 35W TO AFRICA. FURTHER SOUTH A JET HAS ITS AXIS 
STRETCHING FROM NEAR 15N50W TO 17N35W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 
18N. THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 60 KNOTS...LIE BETWEEN 30W AND 
40W. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N56W TO 
25.5N70W AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS 
LOCATED FROM 31N56W TO 22N68W. THE FRONT AND TROUGH ARE VOID OF 
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS ARE CENTERED 
NEAR 25.5N36.5W AND 28.5N23.5W. 

$$
CAB