000
AXNT20 KNHC 011707
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 07N13W TO 04N30W TO 04N40W 01N50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 12W-15W... 
AND FROM EQ-06N BETWEEN 38W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-03N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 23N84W 25N90W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO NW MEXICO AT 25N97W. THE FRONTS IN 
THE GULF HAVE LOST MOST OF THEIR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ARE IN 
THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH 
CAROLINA IS PRODUCING RETURN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 87W AND 
93W. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60'S AND 70'S THROUGHOUT THE GULF. 
SURFACE WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE NE GULF WITH E WINDS AT 
20KT N OF 27N E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E 
OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA 
N OF 26N E OF 93W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF AND TEXAS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE 
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE 
AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...SW HISPANIOLA... 
JAMAICA...COSTA RICA...W HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS 
OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY S OF 17N.  

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N61W 27N70W 24N80W. 
A PER FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N59W 24N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 
1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 25N45W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
N OF 20N E OF 30W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 
20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  

$$
FORMOSA