000
AXNT20 KNHC 011138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
XXXX UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 07N12W TO 04N29W TO 01N50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT 27N82W TO 26N90W THEN STATIONARY TO 25N97W. SW FLOW 
ALOFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NW GULF 
IS INITIATING POCKETS OF MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY W 
OF 93W...THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH 
THIS MORNING. LITTLE LIGHTNING IS NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHIP 
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 15 TO 20 KT NE WINDS TO THE N OF THE 
BOUNDARY...ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE 
TENNESSEE VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SUPPORTING TROUGH FOR THE 
FRONT IS LIFTING OUT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT SUBSEQUENTLY 
DISSIPATES AND WINDS SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE 
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT TRADES PERSIST 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH SOME HINTS OF UP TO 25 KT OFF 
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ELSEWHERE...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES 
ARE NOTED. AREA SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT MID 
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY IN SW FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER IS NOTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS 
THE BASIN ON FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A 
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 20W AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM ROUGHLY 
THE AZORES TO 30N45W. THE TROUGH IS LIFTING NE...PULLING SUPPORT 
FROM AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DISSIPATING FROM 
32N41W TO 28N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NEAR THE CANARY 
ISLANDS WESTWARD ALONG 23N TO THE BAHAMAS. NE OF THE BAHAMAS...A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N71W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 
THE SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW A BROAD 
AREA OF GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT TRADES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND 
N OF 10N. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE 
MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER WHERE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS 
AIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN