000
AXNT20 KNHC 312345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF 
MEXICO ENTERING NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND EXTENDING WSW TO 
27N93W WHERE IT PROGRESSES WWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND INLAND OVER NRN MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL 
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF FROM THE 
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR 27N95W S TO 23N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE ACROSS THE WRN GULF WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 92W. THESE BOUNDARY FEATURES 
ARE SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS 
THE SRN PLAINS OF THE U.S. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE SE AND SW GULF 
A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 23N87W AND IS 
GENERATING ONLY SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THE 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THU AS SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE BRAZIL ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA 
AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. MOISTURE 
REMAINS LIMITED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... 
AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOTED. HOWEVER...SMALL PATCHES OF 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN 
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-77W...AND WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...BUOY 
AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N43W SW TO 24N66W WHERE IT CONTINUES 
WWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT 
IS WEAKENING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKEN AND IS 
LOCATED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. MAINLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE ATLC W OF 40W. FURTHER EAST...A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N9W SW TO JUST E OF 
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N14W. IT IS SUPPORTED BY A MID/UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NRN MOROCCO IN NW AFRICA. AN UPPER RIDGE 
IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS...ALONG 25W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG 23N...WITH FRESH TO 
MODERATE TRADES NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
HUFFMAN