000 AXNT20 KNHC 020559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 23N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 38W-42W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 75W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN AN AREA DEVOID OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 10N25W 13N32W 8N52W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 24W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED OVER LOUISIANA EXTENDING E TO NE FLORIDA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 90W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W AND COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO BETWEEN 91W-96W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER W CUBA BETWEEN 80W-83W. WHILE AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH A WEAKENING 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N87W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES S OVER THE N GULF LATE SAT INTO SUN THEN MOVE W MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E PANAMA EXTENDING NW TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 21N80W EXTENDING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC AND AS FAR S AS JAMAICA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN HAITI AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 62W-70W WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 11N FROM 78W-81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 27N W OF 73W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND MELBOURNE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST N OF THE REGION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO 60W. A WELL DEFINED BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N51W BUT REMAINS A RATHER BENIGN FEATURE. A BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 23N23W. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG 32N37W ALONG 26N56W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE REGION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC ALTHOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE GULF. $$ WALLACE