000 AXNT20 KNHC 230455 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 7N. AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAKENING LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 7.5N55W TO 8.5N58W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ..THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N20W 7N27W 3N36W 1N51W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 95 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE/GUINEA FROM 7N-9.5N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO 5N W OF 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 13W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 89W WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO ARKANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE SYSTEM IS WELL INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL US. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY SW UPPER FLOW. THIS UPPER RIDGE AND THE SHORTWAVE OVER LOUISIANA IS PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 28N FROM 86W-90W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 86W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF IS BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25 TO INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND TEXAS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W PANAMA NW TO W CUBA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE SAME AREA LIMITING CLOUDS AND ANY CONVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 14N E OF 74W...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT CLIPPING THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 32N W OF 50W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-67W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 31N67W OVER N FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-50W AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTEND ALONG 16W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N39W PROVIDING THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. $$ WALLACE