000 AXNT20 KNHC 031815 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON MAR 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N11W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 3N20W 1N30W...EQUATOR AT 40W...1N50W. ...DISCUSSION... TEXAS...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NEXT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH ARE MOVING FROM EASTERN MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...FROM THE PANHANDLE TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO CENTRAL TEXAS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THIS FRONT PROBABLY WILL BE ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ABOUT SUNSET TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KNOTS ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST ABOUT 180 NM WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MODELS MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WITHOUT IT CROSSING FLORIDA COMPLETELY. THE 72 HOUR FORECAST MAP SHOWS AN EAST-TO-WEST WARM FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PREVALENT. WESTERLIES ALOFT DOMINATE THE WIND FLOW WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 65 KT TO 75 KT. A JET STREAM ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N AND CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH 26N90W AND THEN WEAKENS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N85W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF THE JET STREAM. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS REACHING 60 KT ARE FOUND IN SATELLITE DRIFT WINDS REACHING 60 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. THE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN MORE TO THE SOUTH...AND THE WIND SPEED RANGE IS FROM 25 KT TO 30 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS REACH 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 73W...FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 80W...AND NORTH OF 20N MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE AREA OF THE WATERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM OFFSHORE EAST OF 76W IS CLOUD-FREE AT THIS TIME. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 70W. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N58W TO 24N65W TO 23N73W AT THE EDGE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR MARIJUANA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N45W 28N50W 27N62W 26N75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH CONTINUES FROM A 29N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N31W 15N46W. $$ MT