000
AXNT20 KNHC 030538
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N18W 4N41W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-32W...FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 39W-42W...AND FROM 1N S OF THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 28W-36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW ATLC LEAVING THE 
GULF WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS THE 
GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST 
TO SE TEXAS GIVING THE GULF MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS 
FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON 
TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W WITH A LONG 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE TO NEAR 14N72W COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN 
E OF 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING 
FROM 14N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO TO 20N66W. DRY 
STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN 
THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE TRADE WINDS  
ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER TRANQUIL 
TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A REMNANT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 
ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 
MELBOURNE. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED DUE TO THE DRY 
STABLE AIR IN PLACE. LONG UPPER TROUGH TRANSVERSES THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 27N35W ACROSS THE W 
TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS 
FROM 21N39W TO 27N32W. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM 
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N-27N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE 
TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 130 KT EXTENDING 
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM 15N50W 
ALONG 22N28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 22N16W. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N 
OF THE REGION NEAR 35N45W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE REGION OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AND DISSIPATING FRONT. 

$$
WALLACE