000 AXNT20 KNHC 300603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME SPOT THAT IT HAS BEEN RESIDING FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER IS S-T 2.5. A HURRICANE FORECASTER WROTE A DSAAT BULLETIN AT 29/1900 UTC...THIS FEATURE THAT IS ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES GRADUALLY HAS BEEN ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28.5N TO 30N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS STILL IS ALONG 25N34W 20N37W 18N40W 13N50W 10N57W 9N60W AND NOT QUITE TO THE COAST OF EXTREME EASTERN/ NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AS IT WAS 16 HOURS AGO. PATCHES OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...ORIGINATING FROM THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM NORTH OF 17N46W 12N57W 11N65W 13N71W. THE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE BEING PUSHED TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST BY A DEVELOPING MIDDLE-OCEAN RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY MAY BE THE LAST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION TO ITS PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A NAMED SUBTROPICAL STORM GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATER TODAY. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 2N20W TO 4N33W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 9N EAST OF 54W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 10N60W 12N60W 17N40W 27N18W CROSSING OVER NORTHERN WESTERN SAHARA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS. THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W IS COVERED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY A MIXTURE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS TROUGH..AND THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST AWAY FROM THE EAST OF 90W RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N84W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...DISSIPATING AND CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ALL THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD IN ORDER TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N69W IN ORDER TO COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...ORIGINATING FROM THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM NORTH OF 17N46W 12N57W 11N65W 13N71W. THE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ MT