000 AXNT20 KNHC 280624 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER TO 6N20W 4N30W 2N40W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N10W 5N20W 2N30W 1S33W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N38W 2N51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BAND OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N109W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CROSSING MEXICO NEAR 23N101W...INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W...CROSSING FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 30N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND OF MOISTURE. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE BAND OF MOISTURE. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N61W. THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXPERIENCES THE TAIL END OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 82.5W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA COAST NEAR THE GULF OF URABA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW...NORTH OF 14N60W 14N70W 18N74W...FROM 16N TO 18N WEST OF 77W...AND NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN HAITI AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N70W TO 27N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY THE RIDGE. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N38W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N38W ON THE 28/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE 26N38W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 20N45W 15N51W TO 14N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N33W TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 21N38W TO 17N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 32W AND 39W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA COASTS NEAR 8N60W TO 11N50W 16N40W 21N30W BEYOND 24N17W. $$ MT