000
AXNT20 KNHC 261203
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE COASTAL BORDER TO 5N20W 3N30W 3N44W
INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL THROUGH THE EQUATOR AT 50W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 50W...AND 
SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF 6 HOURS AGO 
HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW 
AROUND THIS CENTER IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 28N EAST OF 90W...TO 75W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SOUTH CAROLINA CENTER APPEARS TO BE MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS AT 26/0600 UTC. A TROUGH TRAILS THIS 1011 MB LOW CENTER
TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
THIS TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
ORGANIZING ITSELF IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE 
ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM 
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO WEST TEXAS. EXPECT THE TEXAS FRONT TO 
DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STILL ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES SOUTHERN MEXICO 
AND CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/RIDGE IS IN THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 9N79W 18N80W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW/WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
15N EAST OF 78W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE
TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS...NORTH OF 9N81W 13N78W 15N70W 15N60W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 52W. THE SAME DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24 HOURS AGO REMAINS 
AT THIS TIME. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED
AND NOW IS NEAR 27N40W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC 
CENTER TO 21N42W 16N41W 15N60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N40W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT GOES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
31N39W TRIPLE POINT. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 
25N40W 22N47W 21N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 34W 
AND 41W. SHOWERS WERE DISSIPATING WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
22N39W 17N46W 17N51W.

$$
MT