000 AXNT20 KNHC 221131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ITCZ... ACTIVE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N13W 3N32W 8N56W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA TO 7N65W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 18W-36W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 44W-47W AND W OF 53W UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DIFFUSING FRONT FROM WRN CUBA TO 25N90W ONLY HAS THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TO SHOW ITS POSITION. MOST OTHER DISTINCTIVE FEATURES WERE GONE BY LATE LAST NIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTED NE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TOOK OVER ENTIRE GULF. NEXT FEATURE APPROACHING IS COLD FRONT OFF SE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND REACHING FROM 30N92W TO 24N98W SUN AND FROM 29N83W TO 19N95W. STRONG N-NW WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE S OF 28N W OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO NRN HALF OF GULF AS VERY DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS SRN HALF. E PAC MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED BY 125 KT JET CORE SUPPORTING FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... STABLE DRY AIR MASS PERSIST ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA UNDER BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH PRODUCES STRONG SUBSIDENCE. VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 67W BARELY ABLE TO CAUSE MINOR CONVECTION ALONG ITS AXIS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG MOUNTAIN RANGE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF 10N PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER LAND. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER AREA THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 28N75W WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN NRN CUBA THEN INTO GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT E OF BAHAMAS. GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING N OF 31N. GFS SOLUTION TAKES WEAKENING LOW PRES E-SE THEN TO NEAR 28N65W EARLY SUN. HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND LOW PRES EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS SW N ATLC THROUGH MON. FARTHER EAST...SFC WEAK TROUGH ENTERS E ATLC AT 31N43W TO 27N48W. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 125 NM AHEAD OF TROUGH N OF 27N. LARGE SFC RIDGE REMAINS WELL ANCHORED OVER E ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER LOW CLOUDS AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. $$ WALLY BARNES