000 AXNT20 KNHC 161110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 3N43W 2N52W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 29W TO THE COST OF W AFRICA. A BROAD AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 23W-50W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE SE US AND THE GULF WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE BIG BEND AREA ALONG 24N87W THEN SLOWER AS IT ENTERS MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ AT 16/0900 UTC WHILE THE REMNANTS OF OLGA HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY THIS FRONT. HEAVY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS INTO THE W ATLC. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM W OF THE FRONT W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR W OF THE FRONT WITH SOME SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE OVER THE SW GULF AND A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER S/CENTRAL TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN CREATING A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W SW TO THE TIP OF COLOMBIA. MOSTLY DRY STABLE UPPER AIR REIGNS OVER ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE SE WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 70W-83W. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER W CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HEAVY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE E OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO BEYOND 32N79W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS S OF 25N FROM 55W-70W INCLUDING THE NE CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 35W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 20N20W THROUGH A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N20W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 33N14W. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JET STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 80 TO 120 KT EXTENDS ALONG 15N35W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 19N16W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N54W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. $$ WALLACE