000
AXNT20 KNHC 160553
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N32W 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N 
BETWEEN 15W-20W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ILL-DEFINED WEST OF 20W WITH A 
BROAD AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION COVERING 
THE AREA FROM 1N-15N BETWEEN 20W-50W. 

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE SE US AND THE GULF WITH A FAST 
MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA 
BORDER EXTENDING ALONG 25N92W THEN SLOWER AS IT ENTERS MEXICO 
NEAR TUXPAN AT 16/0300 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF OLGA ARE IN THE E 
GULF NEAR 25N87W AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE WITH HEAVY RAINS AND EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS IS WELL E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 
EXTENDING FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N85W TO OVER THE 
E FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT N 
OF 25N THEN EXPAND TO WITHIN 150 NM AS IT APPROACHES THE MEXICAN 
COAST. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GALE WARNINGS W OF THE FRONT AND A SURFACE 
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER 
CENTRAL TEXAS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF OLGA 
ARE NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS 
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE 
CARIBBEAN CREATING A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 15N E OF 73W TO OVER THE 
LESSER ANTILLES. MOSTLY DRY STABLE UPPER AIR REIGNS OVER MUCH OF 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF 
THE REGION USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 
67W-83W. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 
70W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS S OF 25N FROM 55W-70W INCLUDING THE 
NE CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W. 
UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JET STREAM 
WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ALONG 15N35W ACROSS 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 18N16W. A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 
28N62W WITH RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO 
WILL CHANGE AS THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE E 
GULF AND THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC LATER TODAY. 

$$
WALLACE