000 AXNT20 KNHC 051742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED DEC 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 3N20W 2N40W EQ44W 2S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-32W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W FROM 24N-30N. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN GULF. GOES-10 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDINESS BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS WELL AS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS OF THE GULF. ALOFT...A WELL DEFINED CUT-OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO LIKELY ADVECTING A PLUME OF CLOUDINESS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER W TO NW UPPER FLOW INDUCING STABLE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THU. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SFC RIDGE FROM THE ATLC CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ. A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 10N80W. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOT THE AREA. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. WINDS REMAINS LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK PRES PATTERN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THU THROUGH FRI WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO THE ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE W ATLC JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS WWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 26N72W AND CONTINUES AS COLD FRONT BEYOND 31N58W. A THIN BAND OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED 20-25 KT SW WINDS WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. FARTHER E...A PERSISTENT 1014 MB LOW IS STILL SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N51W...WHERE THE LOWEST PRES WAS FOUND. THIS LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE PULLING NWD AND MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED JUST N OF THE LOW ALONG AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 58W FROM 11N-19N. A BATCH OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A SFC RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ANCHORED ON A 1032 MB HIGH LOCATED WEST AND CLOSE TO THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS IN THE SUBTROPICS AND MID-LATITUDES. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN THE TROPICS WHICH IS ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHING BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA SOUTH OF 20N...AND CROSSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR