000 AXNT20 KNHC 051141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N20W 3N40W 1N45W EQUATOR50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 16W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-45W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WITH THE GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DOWN THIS MORNING ITS DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN A COMPREHENSIVE PICTURE OF THE WEATHER DETAILS. BASED UPON SFC OBS...SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES AND SAT IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY...WX CONDITIONS APPEAR FAIRLY QUIET BEHIND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE FLA STRAITS TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN SURGING SWD TO S MEXICO ALONG 25N80W 23N88W 19N92W. THE SFC FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. USING A COMBINATION OF GOES-W WV IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...A WELL DEFINED CUT OFF MID TO UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO LIKELY ADVECTING A PLUME OF CLOUDINESS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER W TO NW UPPER FLOW INDUCING STABLE CONDITIONS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STREAMS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MUCH OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 72W OR SO. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY BOTH N AND S BUT LITTLE OVER THE ISLAND AT THE MOMENT. LIKE THE GULF OF MEXICO...THERE IS NO GEOSTATIONARY SAT IMAGES THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION W OF 70W-75W WHICH MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE THE CURRENT STATE. THE LAST IMAGE AT 1645 Z YESTERDAY SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SPIN TO THE CLOUDS IN THE SW CARIB SUGGESTING A SFC LOW NEAR THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS HAS LIKELY HELD TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE AS MODEL DATA AND SFC OBS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW NEAR 11N77W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK PRES PATTERN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N59W SWWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE THRU THE FLA STRAITS. A 01Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KT SW WINDS WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A PERSISTENT 1012 MB LOW IS STILL SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N52W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE PULLING NWD AND MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW BUT A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS N OF THE LOW FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 51W-52W. SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LIES FURTHER E IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 41W-44W. ANOTHER WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 9N-17N. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO ONLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. THE WEAK FRONT IN THE E ATLC HAS NOW LIFTED BACK N OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC RIDGING TO DOMINATE EXTENDING SW FROM A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS IN THE SUBTROPICS AND MID-LATITUDES. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN THE TROPICS WHICH IS ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS S OF 20N. $$ CANGIALOSI