000 AXNT20 KNHC 050021 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 5N8W 4N20W 5N37W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL ALONG 50W AT THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N EAST OF 45W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 1W IN COASTAL GHANA. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE ITCZ FROM 10N39W TO 7N40W TO 4N41W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 105W IN CENTRAL MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST HAS PASSED OVER THE LAST PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...NOW NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHING THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N80W 24N85W 24N91W 18N95W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE AREA FROM VENEZUELA NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA ALSO THANKS TO AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS EXTENDING WESTWARD. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD TO JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 77W AND COASTAL COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N75W 13N71W 15N67W 18N63W 19N60W. THIS CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION EASILY MAY BE LEFT OVER FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME AREA 24 HOURS AGO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALSO ARE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W... AND WEST OF 15N83W 21N85W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFF THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 28N70W TO 25N80W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N80W 28N72W BEYOND 32N64W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 20N42W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N31W TO 25N42W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N51W. THIS LOW CENTER HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO 19N55W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N63W 20N53W 22N51W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N54W 28N48W...AND NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N34W 24N30W BEYOND 32N24W. BROAD AND WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 25W INCLUDING OVER AFRICA. $$ MT