000 AXNT20 KNHC 302332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 5N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 28W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NORTH OF AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 45W-51W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS COVERS THE SE U.S. AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM A 1018 MB SFC LOW LOCATED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W. PATCHES OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWER ARE NOTED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NEAR THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATES THE GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINLY WEST OF 90W. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS THIS UPPER FEATURE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF TOMORROW...AND ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF ON SUNDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. INCREASING N WINDS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE SOUTHERN EDGE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN ADVECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA FROM A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. TYPICAL FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 32N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE TROUGH OVER THE OCEAN. FURTHER EAST...A SFC TROUGH...REFLEXION OF A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 30N51W 22N54W 14N56W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COVERING FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 42W-61W. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE W ATLC WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG NELY WINDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES... INCLUDING THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS E OF 23W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE JET. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. OF NOTE...NOVEMBER THE 30TH MARKS THE END OF THE TROPICAL SEASON. THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON PRODUCED FOURTEEN NAMED STORMS...OF WHICH SIX BECAME HURRICANES...WITH TWO OF THE HURRICANES ATTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE) STATUS. IN ADDITION...TWO OTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMED DURING THE YEAR. THE NUMBERS OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES WERE NEAR THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR A SEASON BUT THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. DESPITE THE NEAR-AVERAGE OVERALL ACTIVITY...TWO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANES...DEAN AND FELIX...MADE LANDFALL DURING THIS SEASON FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1851. NOEL...THE LAST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. NOEL BECAME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. $$ GR