000 AXNT20 KNHC 300509 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 4N41W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 14W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N E OF 14W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND OVER A BROAD AREA FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 27W-42W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE NW ATLC WITH THE WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INLAND ALONG THE E COAST STATES DISSIPATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER SE LOUISIANA TO TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. THERE IS LITTLE PUSH OR MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE E/CENTRAL STATES ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/E CUBA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA E OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/E CUBA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 73W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH DRY STABLE AIR W OF 72W. UPPER TROUGH IS UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N FROM 42W-72W WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N48W WHILE THE REMAINDER REMAIN WEAK AND INSIGNIFICANT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29852W TO 16N57W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 42W-56W. SMALL WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N38W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 26W AND NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICS E OF 50W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 130 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE N BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS E OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE