000 AXNT20 KNHC 291118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 5N41W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 19W-26W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26N-41W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINING INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXTENDING W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL CLIP THE N GULF COAST OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE N GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO E TEXAS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W OF 95W. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO CUBA E OF 84W BROUGHT IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA JUST W OF JAMAICA CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM COLOMBIA JUST N OF PANAMA ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING MOST OF THE AREA E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. MODERATE/ STRONG E TO NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 76W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH DRY STABLE AIR W OF 70W. UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 29N FROM 56W-67W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W TO 30N68W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N54W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N45W TO 13N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 40W-56W. SMALL WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 28N24W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 20N E OF 45W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE N BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE