000
AXNT20 KNHC 281056
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N23W 6N45W 4N54W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-34W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF W 
AFRICA. 

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING 
OVER THE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
ENTERING THE GULF S OF FORT MYERS BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N90W 
WHERE IT DISSIPATES INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE SE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING 
OVER THE E US WITH A SERIES OF HIGHS OVER THE INLAND AREA. COLD 
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES 
ALONG THE N GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE S AND W GULF ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO TEXAS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA JUST W OF JAMAICA 
CONTINUING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO WITHIN 90 NM 
ALONG THE COASTLINE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E 
OF 72W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE SAME AREA TO INLAND OVER 
THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE 
WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED 
LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 80W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 
27N W OF 65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA 
NEAR 32N72W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE 
UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NE 
ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N60W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N56W ACROSS THE 
LESSER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE ABC 
ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N43W TO 16N49W WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-30N BETWEEN 
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-27N 
BETWEEN 35W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN E/W JET STREAM IS OVER 
THE TROPICS WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 TO 100 KT AND 
EXTENDING FROM 14N-22N E OF 54W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. AT THE 
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF THE W ATLC 
COLD FRONT WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.    

$$
WALLACE