000 AXNT20 KNHC 270506 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 67W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N23W 3N39W 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-26W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF W AFRICA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE E US EXTENDING OVER THE GULF FROM NE FLORIDA TO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF JUST E OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA EXTENDING TO 24N90W WHERE IT IS NEAR STATIONARY INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PULL NW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE W GULF WITH A 1026 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND CLEARING SKIES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CUBA EXTENDING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF SW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDING A RIDGE W OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE INTO THE W ATLC AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 21N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W WITH DRY STABLE AIR FILTERING S ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING OVER THE E US HAS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINING INLAND OVER THE E US. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N70W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 10N FROM 35W-70W WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N51W TO 24N59W AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N40W TO 19N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM 31N35W TO 19N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A WEAK JET STREAM EXTENDING FROM 14N38W ALONG 21N25W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W PROVIDING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-20N E OF 35W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE