000 AXNT20 KNHC 261805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT TO SPOT IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. THE WAVE IS NOT THAT APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL MAY HINT AT A WAVE. LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...POSSIBLY/PROBABLY NOT RELATED AT ALL TO THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 8N13W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N3W 3N9W 5N17W 8N25W 7N40W 7N50W 7N61W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHERN END OF THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N96W IN A NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY AND YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N77W FROM THE CENTRAL TO WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N91W 21N93W 20N95W... AND 28N87W-BEYOND-31N85W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N81W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N83W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IN A PRIME AREA FOR MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IN ORDER TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 65 THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS AND HAS BEEN THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST FIVE TO SIX DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG 32N35W 25N37W 17N40W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH 32N37W TO 29N42W...AND DISSIPATING ALONG 29N42W 27N50W 26N56W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 27N. $$ MT