000
AXNT20 KNHC 260003
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 
14N MOVING WEST 10 KT.  THIS LATE SEASON LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS 
A FAINT LOW CLOUD CURVATURE SIGNATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 
10N-14N BETWEEN 61W-67W.   

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 5N30W 3N40W 1N50W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 14W-30W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 31W-35W.  

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SW LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W.  A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND 
CONTINUES W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 
23N94W 20N97W 22N100W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO E OF 
THE COLD FRONT FROM 24N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 89W-93W MOVING E.  
THE LAST 15 MINUTES OF LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS NUMEROUS 
STRIKES OVER THIS AREA.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER 
THE COLD SECTOR W OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST.  THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 10-15 KT 
SW SURFACE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N100W.  THE 
WESTERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF N OF 93W BETWEEN 85W-93W.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT...THE 
SURFACE LOW MOVE NE TO KENTUCKY IN 24 HOURS.  A COLD FRONT WILL 
EXTEND S FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND CONTINUE TO 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N84W 22N92W WITH CONVECTION 
IN 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  SEE ABOVE.  
STEADY TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY S OF 
18N.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...E 
NICARAGUA...AND E HONDURAS FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 79W-85W.  MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 
70W. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  CONSIDERABLE 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT...SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO W OF 80W OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N64W.  A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W 26N60W 26N70W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  A TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT... 
IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N38W 27N40W 21N50W AGAIN WITH NO 
CONVECTION.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND 
E OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS W OF 60W.  A TROUGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  UPPER LEVEL 
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND W 
AFRICA.  

$$
FORMOSA