000 AXNT20 KNHC 251132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLY THIS MORNING PARTICULARLY EAST OF 33W. IT AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N25W 4N40W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 15W-33W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THEN CONTINUES NW AND W TO A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST 29N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO NE MEXICO AT 23N98W. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF MAINLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 93W-96W. LIGHTNING DATA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS IN THIS AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME... THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER THE NE GULF...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT HAS QUICKLY MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IN ENHANCING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO LOUISIANA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS FLORIDA/THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE FAIR SKIES PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE STATE OF CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 14N72W. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER A NELY WIND FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...PARTICULARLY JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N53W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR 27N72W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT CROSSING JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1009 SFC LOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS. A SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED VERY CLOSE TO THE SE COAST OF U.S. BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC TODAY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 38W-45W. STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-45W. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 0600 UTC MAP FROM 31N40W TO 21N45W. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED ON A 1038 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF AREA. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. $$ GR