000 AXNT20 KNHC 242313 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. MOISTURE IS MOVING WESTWARD ALSO WITH BROAD SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUYANA. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 5N30W 5N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 50W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N90W TO 25N93W TO A NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 24N96W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N96W INTO MEXICO TO 24N99W 26N102W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N104W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEYOND 31N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...AND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH ENCOMPASSES BAJA CALIFORNIA... INTERIOR MEXICO...AND TEXAS/NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 101W AND 120W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...AND SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME DISSIPATING ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS FOR THE 24/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP. THE 1012 MB ISOBAR RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE CENTRAL SECTION...TO THE NORTHERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS BORDER. THE 1016 MB ISOBAR ENTERS THE AREA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...SKIRTS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND EXITS THE AREA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS AND HAS BEEN THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 24N44W 18N48W TO 13N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N40W 22N48W AND 17N52W. A TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N44W TO 25N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N46W 21N37W 26N34W BEYOND 32N33W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N45W 20N48W 17N54W... AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N54W 15N55. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS GIVING UPPER AIR SUPPORT TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 36N52W TO 33N55W TO 31N58W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N68W TO 27N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N58W 28N64W 26N70W 27N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...ALONG 10N41W 22N33W BEYOND 32N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 11N47W 20N38W 25N32W BEYOND 32N26W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 30W. $$ MT