000
AXNT20 KNHC 231803
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.  
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON THIS LATE 
SEASON LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 5N30W 2N51W.  CLUSTERS OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 5W-20W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 28N80W 24N90W 18N95W.  VERY LITTLE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 91W-95W.  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  
WINDS ARE NELY 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT.  WINDS ARE SELY 10-15 KT 
S OF THE FRONT WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS 
FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  EXPECT...THE FRONT TO 
STALL LATER TODAY.  ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO 
RETROGRADE BACK TO S TEXAS AS A WARM FRONT WITH SOME CONVECTION 
WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STEADY TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 
16N-19N BETWEEN 84W-89W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-82W.  THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 13N AND E OF 78W.  CONSIDERABLE 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA AND OVER CENTRAL AND 
SOUTH AMERICA.  EXPECT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO 
BE CONFINED TO S OF 14N AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N76W 
28N80W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
28N68W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
32N38W 27N40W 16N52W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 39W-44W.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE 
IS W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 20W-40W.  UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS 
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND W AFRICA.  EXPECT THE 
STATIONARY FRONT TO STAY PUT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION.
 
$$
FORMOSA