000 AXNT20 KNHC 221801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS CURVED ALONG 18N47W 12N49W 4N50W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE NRN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS ABOUT TO CLASH WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SE. CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-19N BETWEEN 45W-49W... AND FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 40W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 84W-87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 4N40W 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 37W-42W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO AND CONTINUES ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 31N86W 26N90W 24N95W 22N99W 25N100W 29N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 93W-96W. WINDS ARE NLY 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE SELY 10-15 KT S OF THE FRONT WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS ANS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 13N AND E OF 80W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA AND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO S OF 13N AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N39W 28N40W 20N48W 17N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 37W-45W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS W OF 65W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-65W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W. UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND W AFRICA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PROCEED SLOWLY E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. $$ FORMOSA