000 AXNT20 KNHC 221117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ANY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS VERY WEAK AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ANY ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N26W 4N40W 2N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 21W-42W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE E US AND ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 85W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA ALONG 28N94W TO JUST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE NW GULF EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 28N92W TO 26N96W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE NE US PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N87W TO OVER FLORIDA TO S GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE FAR E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N GULF TODAY AND EXITING ON SAT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AS THE FRONT USHERS IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS E CUBA COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SW OF A LINE FROM 20N84W TO 15N80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A LINGERING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N64W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN IS UNDER BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N FROM 45W-70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W ALONG 23N47W OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N FROM 42W-52W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 10N45W N TO BEYOND 32N32W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND COUPLED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE FROM 7N46W ALONG 23N42W TO BEYOND 32N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO W OF 75W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N73W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N29W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS EXTENDING FROM AFRICA NEAR 6N11W TO 7N44W. $$ WALLACE