000 AXNT20 KNHC 220526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ANY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 18N DRIFTING WESTWARD. WAVE REMAINS VERY WEAK AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ANY ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N26W 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 4N28W 5N38W TO 9N50W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES CLIPPING THE NW GULF WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT STILL INLAND OVER E TEXAS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MOVING E NEAR 30 KT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA TO ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N FROM 84W-89W. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT CROSSING THE GULF AND EXITING ON SAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS E CUBA COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SW OF A LINE FROM 19N87W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W ALONG THE S COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO THE MONA PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN IS UNDER BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 45W-75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 23N48W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 23N FROM 46W-58W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 17N38W N TO BEYOND 32N34W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND COUPLED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 11N44W 23N43W TO BEYOND 32N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N74W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N31W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS EXTENDING FROM AFRICA NEAR 8N13W TO 12N51W. $$ WALLACE