000 AXNT20 KNHC 161807 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 47W-54W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A BROAD INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS ARE HEAVIEST OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 6N20W 7N40W 9N53W 9N61W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 10W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 31W-44W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N91W. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 27N. AS OF 1500 UTC...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N80W 21N90W 18N93W. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY E OF 85W. A VERY THIN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. 10-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT. ON-SHORE FLOW W OF 95W FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO VERACRUZ MEXICO IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL OVERCAST SKIES WITH DRIZZLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN ZONAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO ON-SHORE FLOW...IN 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 85W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE S OF 15N AND W OF 80W. EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N DUE TO THE LEADING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N67W 26N74W 23N80W. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 15-20 KT NLY WINDS. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN 58W-63W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N22W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N26W 25N30W 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. AN ARE OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 34W-37W AGAIN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-80W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N37W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA