000
AXNT20 KNHC 141751
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 84W-89W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA 
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 82W-84W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER S 
ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 82W-83W.  

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 8N50W 10N62W.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE ITCZ FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 43W-48W.  
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N 
BETWEEN 23W-39W.    

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N85W.  A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FAIR WEATHER 
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 5-10 KT WINDS.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF AND MEXICO WITH AXIS 
ALONG 97W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 
27N80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A 
COLD FRONT TO PUSH DOWN AND EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO S TEXAS 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN 24 HOURS.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  
SEE ABOVE.  A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 7N78W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W S OF 16N.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-67W INCLUDING THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-90W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT ALL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO MOVE W 
AT 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.         

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N60W.  A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 28N41W 22N50W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1022 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N29W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-80W.  AN EMBEDDED 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.  ANOTHER EMBEDDED 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N49W.  A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 45W WITH RIDGE 
AXIS ALONG 31W.  

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FORMOSA