000 AXNT20 KNHC 102324 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE DRY SURGE... WITH SAHARAN DUST...QUICKLY SPREADING WWD TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 53W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE APPARENT IN ANY OF THE AVAILABLE DATA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 4N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 16W-35W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE E SIDE OF A RIDGE IS PRODUCING NWLY WINDS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE TO SOUTH CAROLINA IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS...AND COOLER NLY WINDS TO FLOW OVER N FLORIDA WITHIN 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITHIN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NEAR 7N76W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N81W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 71W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO HONDURAS NEAR 14N89W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 70W-85W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AT 15 KT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF BERMUDA ALONG 32N66W 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 24N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W-60W WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 16N44W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA